Confidence in your model + Confidence in your numbers
= Confidence in your decisions
Arrisca Analyser is an audit and assurance tool which helps you to understand any spreadsheet. With just a few clicks you can perform sensitivity analysis on a model, and see at a glance what the critical factors are. You can also perform quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using the inbuilt Monte Carlo simulation engine, to understand all possible outcomes for your project, and how likely they are to occur.
Arrisca starts off by searching through your model for all of the factors which might affect the key thing(s) you're interested in. This could be the total project cost, the NPV on an investment, the demand profile for water/electricity in a specific area, the quantity of oil in a reservoir, or whatever type of model it is that you want to audit.
Arrisca traces through all the formula in your spreadsheet, on multiple worksheets and workbooks, until it understands your complete model structure. A shock is applied to each and every input to identify and quantify the effect of any input that drives your outcome. This highlights the most important inputs in the spreadsheet, which ones are not as significant and those that don't work. This information is displayed in a tornado graph, showing at a glance what the key drivers are & how much impact they have on the bottom line. Arrisca’s innovative heatmapping capability then colour-codes cells on your spreadsheet for visual inspection and interpretation of the results.
Arrisca also provides 'levers' which allow you to manually evaluate changes to the model's inputs to see at a glance what might happen to your modelled outcome if, for example, interest rates were to increase, alongside a drop in revenues and an increase in costs, and test what to do about it.
For the modelling professional, Arrisca contains advanced analytical capabilities. Monte Carlo simulation allows uncertainty and probabilistic risk to be incorporated as part of a quantitative risk analysis (QRA). This technique allows you to see all possible outcomes and to quantify the probability of a particular event or milestone. This adds confidence to your estimates as an additional dimension, facilitating statements like “there's a 60% chance that this project will overrun the original budget”, or that “there is a 10% chance that an additional £100 million will be needed to provide sufficient contingency”. You can include risk & opportunity events directly into the model, as well as correlating inputs for additional "real-world" modelling realism.